Navigating the Tariff Storm Part VI: The Good, The Bad, & What’s Next

By Daniel Hyla & David Teeple

Introduction

Since the Trump administration declared “Liberation Day” in early April, signaling a sharp pivot in trade policy, tariffs have been disrupting global trade. The impact was immediate. U.S. trade revenue has skyrocketed post tariff implementation, generating $37.6 billion in April and May combined. The two highest monthly figures since early 2022. Within that same timeframe, imports from China decreased from $41.2 billion to $24.6 billion, marking the lowest trade volume with. China since the early days of the pandemic¹. With exemptions, retaliatory moves, and deadlines looming, today’s landscape remains unstable, but highly influential on global supply chains.

The Good News

Despite the chaos, there are glimmers of opportunity. Recent trade talks between the U.S. & China wrapped up on June 10 with a “framework deal” that has reduced certain tariffs by up to 115% for the next 90 days. While comprehensive details remain undisclosed, rare earth minerals—sourced heavily from China & critical to EVs, semiconductors, and military equipment—were a key motivator for the deal². Additionally, exemptions for key allies remain in place. The United Kingdom, for instance, continues to enjoy duty-free status on steel and aluminum shipments—helping maintain supply stability for several industrial sectors.

The Bad News

The broader tariff landscape, however, has continued to drive uncertainty and change. On June 4, duties on steel and aluminum imports were doubled to 50%³, part of an effort to boost U.S. manufacturing and reduce dependency on foreign supply chains, particularly for defense and infrastructure. Meanwhile, the 25% tariffs imposed in March on Canadian and Mexican goods remain unresolved. Trade talks have stalled, primarily over disputes related to agricultural quotas and North American vehicle rules-of-origin. Canada has hit back with equal measures, and Mexico has escalated the matter to the World Trade Organization. Compounding tensions is a new 25% tariff on goods from countries still importing Venezuelan oil, a policy tied to Executive Order 14245⁴. This measure is already disrupting Latin American trade corridors and has raised concerns about broader energy security implications.

Economic Impact

The cumulative effect of these moves, while not fully materialized, are showing early signs of continued disruption. Inflation, while currently at a modest 2.4% per May’s CPI report, is expected to continue to climb, in part due to tariff-related cost increases. However, American households are estimated to face an additional $1,000 to $1,500 in annual expenses tied directly to tariffs. The World Bank has also warned of the slowest global growth since the 1960s, adding urgency for countries to stabilize trade policies⁵.

Domestically, discontent is growing. Several courts have recently reviewed the legality of the Liberation Day tariffs, potentially opening the door for legal pushback or even reversals. And in the short term, a surge in U.S. import activity is expected this summer, as companies rush to bring in goods before more tariffs are implemented—a trend confirmed by the latest Port Tracker data.

What’s Next

All eyes are now on the July 8 deadline, when key decisions are anticipated to expand, pause, or roll back tariffs based on each country’s willingness to negotiate. For supply chain leaders, this means doubling down on agility. Organizations must prepare for short-term shocks while building in long-term resilience through diversified sourcing, dynamic risk modeling, and cross-border scenario planning, all of which can help mitigate tariff-related impacts.

How Sedlak can Help

Tariffs are no longer just a trade issue—they are a core business variable. As the next wave of trade decisions approaches, companies must remain alert, informed, and ready to adapt. The volatility may continue, but those with flexible supply chains will be best positioned to weather the uncertainty and seize the opportunities ahead. Sedlak helps organizations build resilient, future-ready supply chains. Evaluating your Network Strategy, one of Sedlak’s core business pillars, can help organizations streamline their Supply Chain, ensuring facilities are positioned to withstand tariff-related impacts. At a micro level, investing in Labor Management Systems (LMS) & Automation provide opportunities to increase visibility, productivity, and effectiveness within Warehouses and Distribution Centers. Reach out to Dave Teeple at dteeple@jasedlak.com or Daniel Hyla at dhyla@jasedlak.com for more information.

Check out the recaps of our three virtual events!

Utilize Supply Chain Design to Achieve a Competitive Advantage – Optilogic

Construction & Facility Design Considerations for New and Existing Facilities – FCL

Revolutionizing Supply Chains: The Power of Swisslog Goods-to-Person Warehouse Automation – Swisslog

Sources

1. Here’s How Much Money the U.S. Is Earning From Tariffs, in Charts – WSJ – www.wsj.com
2. S.-China agree on framework to implement Geneva trade consensus – www.cnbc.com
3. Adjusting Imports of Aluminum and Steel into the United States – The White House – www.whitehouse.gov
4. DCPD-202500393 – Executive Order 14245—Imposing Tariffs on Countries Importing Venezuelan Oil
5. Global Economic Prospects – www.worldbank.org